banking industry outlook 2021


There are too many manual processes involved across the risk management function. A number of countries have already begun introducing open banking regulations, indicating that the financial services industry is moving toward an era where shared data and infrastructure will become consumers’ new expectations. These enhancements may not only cover digital-only channels but also in-branch experiences, such as self-service digital kiosks/interfaces. Technical debt in the form of legacy infrastructure and data fragmentation across the enterprise continues to impede banks’ digital transformation initiatives.39 But in many institutions, digital inertia has faded: There is now more appetite for technology-driven transformation, especially in core systems. One-half of respondents said their institutions’ inclination to outsource has somewhat or significantly increased during the pandemic, while about 40% indicated a decline in their institution’s intent to build or buy (figure 8). At the same time, banks should continue to invest in digital, customer-facing technology to provide the seamless experience the industry has been seeking for a while. Take financial inclusion, for example. Power finds,” May 7, 2020. These may include operating with agility, flattening hierarchies, speeding up decision-making, empowering employees, and introducing flexible workplaces and workforces. A podcast by our professionals who share a sneak peek at life inside Deloitte. Power, “Canadian Banks face untimely digital banking headwinds since pandemic began, J.D. Using the right technology and tools will be critical to the success of these programs. But these changes, along with other forces, such as digital acceleration, will likely transform talent models in the banking industry. Citing an array of risks heading into 2021, Moody’s Investors Service has a negative outlook on much of the global banking industry — except in Canada. View in article, Refinitiv Podcast, “The role of banks in Sustainable Finance & Crisis Mitigation & addressing the fossil fuel challenge,” accessed October 26, 2020. https://eos.org/editor-highlights/fm-radio-on-jupiter-brought-to-you-by-ganymede, Finance Monthly Game Changers Awards 2017, Chris Skinner is best known as an independent commentator on the financial markets through his blog, TheFinanser.com, as author of the bestselling book Digital Bank, and Chair of the European networking forum the Financial Services Club. We serve our clients locally, while drawing upon the firm’s considerable global resources and industry expertise. View in article, J.D. To fully realize the digital promise in the front office, banks should elevate customer engagement by deploying an optimal mix of digital and human interactions, intelligent use of data, novel partnerships, and compelling service delivery models. View in article, Jonathan Walter, Measuring stakeholder capitalism: Towards common metrics and consistent reporting of sustainable value creation, World Economic Forum, September 2020. However, traditional branch closures could be partially offset by drive-throughs and next-gen branches that enhance customer experience. “No part of the payments ecosystem will escape the effects of the pandemic,” Accenture asserts. In this report, we offer perspectives on how these lessons can be applied to strengthen resilience and accelerate transformation in the following areas: digital customer engagement, talent, operations, technology, risk, finance, M&A, and sustainable finance. They should be afforded opportunities to learn how their work fits into the bigger picture, to gain a deeper appreciation for how they are making an impact within and outside the organization.29. The pandemic has already resulted in significant increases in forbearance and collections. Strengthening resilience, accelerating transformation, Redefining the art of the possible in a post–COVID-19 world, Sustainable finance: A unique opportunity for inspiring leadership, Digital customer engagement: The next frontier, Talent: Boosting well-being and productivity through resilient leadership, Operations: Building long-term resilience, and using technology for strategic cost transformation, Technology: Capitalizing on the multiplicative value of different technologies, Finance: Driving strategic value through data, Risk: Creating a new risk control architecture, Cyber risk: Investing for greater resilience, M&A: Rewriting the playbook for a postpandemic world, Key actions to consider in the business segments. Banks were making rapid strides in their digital transformation journey, but the pandemic accelerated the pace. But only 40% and 43% expect increases in investment spend on automation and AI, respectively. Roughly eight in 10 use a smartphone and/or desktop/laptop to complete banking activities. Power finds,” September 1, 2020. Workplace redesign should also be a key focus as institutions strike the right balance between the workplace and virtual/remote arrangements, based on the specific needs of various roles/jobs. Global investment banks outlook ‘stable’ for 2021 Marie Kemplay Monday, 4 January 2021 The world’s largest investment banks are in a relatively strong position to handle any further economic headwinds, according to Moody's. Uncertainty about the effects of the pandemic will likely remain for the foreseeable future. 2021 Financial services industry outlooks, Visit the Within reach? As the pandemic continues and uncertainties remain, bank leaders should continue to proactively recognize employee concerns, be sensitive to their personal/family needs, and prioritize physical and psychological health efforts that can also help maintain employee productivity. Unsurprisingly, the transition to a new reality brought about by COVID-19 is a key theme that is woven throughout many of these focus areas. 26. For instance, 44% of retail banking customers said they are using their primary bank’s mobile app more often.17 Likewise, at Nubank, a Brazilian digital bank, the number of accounts rose by 50%, going up to a total of 30 million.18. Moreover, as the finance function becomes more analytics-driven, new skills will likely be required in data science and coding. She is a Vice Chairman of Deloitte UK and the global lead client service partner for a major financial services organisation. Overall, the relatively smooth transition to a new virtual operating model is a testament to years of preparation and regulators’ attention on operational resilience.32. Banks should also buttress risk sensing. Finally, banks’ future talent strategies should be agile and adaptable. This represents a $300 billion opportunity for payment providers. Undoubtedly, agility goes hand in hand with resilience. View in article, M. Ahmed, “It’s time to future-proof your workforce for the digital era: Citi's Joel Fastenberg,” Indeed People Matters, September 9, 2020. Banking leaders might have to make difficult trade-offs between productivity and well-being. This trend will play out for the next 5-10 years. View in article, Erica Volini et al., Returning to work in the future of work: Embracing purpose, potential, perspective, and possibility during COVID-19, Deloitte Insights, May 15, 2020. New team structures should be tied directly to how work gets done. Helped along by accommodative monetary and government policies, banks have indeed played their part in the crisis response. View in article, Chris Semple, “How BBVA built a snowball to increase digital sales in Spain,” BBVA, November 14, 2019. View in article, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Managing climate risk in the US financial system, September 2020. While institutions that made strategic investments in technology came out stronger, laggards may still be able to leapfrog competitors if they take swift action to accelerate tech modernization. User behavior analytics and machine learning can further help detect potential anomalous behavior on the network and individual endpoints. Leaders should empower their front-line workforces with more decision-making authority by creating flatter team structures and revisiting responsibilities and accountability.35, Many banks could also pursue a structural cost transformation initiative to bolster operational efficiency (figure 7). Title: Investment Outlook - Q1 2021 - Recovering and Rebuilding - Transcript Author: Miranda SPIRO Subject: Investment Outlook - Q1 2021 - Recovering and Rebuilding Created Date: 4. Technology, meanwhile, is already being used to improve talent outcomes and promote resilience. Trending. While uncertainty around large-scale vaccine availability persists, over the next few months, talent functions will be busy crafting safe return-to-workplace strategies. While AI adoption is still not as widespread,41 and the full potential has yet to be realized, banks must recognize that AI does not exist in isolation. Banks should heed this call and get more creative about building economically attractive and durable business models. The 2021 Business Leaders Outlook survey is a snapshot of the current business environment based on the responses of 1,000-plus senior executives from U.S. middle market companies with annual revenues from $20 million to $500 million. Across the board, digital inertia has faded, and more banks are pursuing technology-driven transformation, especially to core systems. To learn more click, The Finanser’s Week: 14th December 2020 – 10th January 2021. While banking seems to be changing, so does the purpose of banks. Digital interfaces are essential, and desired, but customers tend to need person-to-person experiences to boost loyalty. Future success may very well hinge on how well these lessons have been internalized and implemented. In the United States, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission urged financial market participants to “move urgently and decisively to measure, understand, and address …[climate] risks.”10 Similarly, the European Central Bank now expects banks “to integrate climate and environmental risks in business strategy, governance, risk management and disclosure.”11, There are also new laws in the works, such as the Climate Change Financial Risk Act introduced in the US Senate in November 2019, which calls for the US Federal Reserve to help develop climate risk stress-test scenarios.12, Similarly, various industry entities, such as the Institute of International Finance, the World Economic Forum (WEF), the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures, and the Partnership for Carbon Accounting Financials (PCAF) have also proposed structural changes to climate risk standards and transparency.13. For instance, CaixaBank and Bankia, two Spanish banks active in a highly fragmented banking market, agreed to merge, forming Spain’s largest domestic retail bank.52 We could expect this dynamic to play out in other banking markets globally. As vital engines of growth in the global economy through a multitude of roles—financial market intermediaries, asset owners, investors, and employers—banks have a critical role to play in sustainable finance. The consulting firm predicts that a total of 2.7 trillion transactions worth $48 trillion will shift from cash to cards, interbank payments and alternative payment instruments such as person-to-person (P2P) and point-of-sale finance (buy now, pay later). There was no existing playbook, so bank leaders had to find new ways to do things. For instance, the PCAF has developed a global carbon accounting standard, while the Global Sustainability Standards Board is setting standards for reporting.14 But there still isn’t enough coordination and consensus across regions and within the financial services industry.Other persistent challenges are insufficient data and the use of imperfect metrics to assess sustainability activities, performance, and outcomes. They can also nudge new behaviors among clients and counterparties. The banking industry will confront a range of challenges in 2021, many ongoing, but also some new obstacles. In addition, banks could incorporate artificial intelligence (AI)-based banking assistants and sensor-based augmented reality and virtual reality experiences. Credit losses will likely increase as the economic recovery stalls. The pandemic brought banks a renewed sense of purpose in 2020: providing liquidity to the real economy. Banking and Finance Industry Outlook 2021 Written by inventure knowledge Posted on 5th January 2021 5th January 2021 Less than 0 min read Tahun 2021 harus menjadi momentum comeback karena mau tidak mau dunia usaha harus menggeliat kembali tak boleh kalah untuk kedua kali. AI could also be deployed to automate finance processes and free up capacity to take on more strategic activities. The rating agency reported that more than 75% of rated banks now have a negative outlook, compared to just 14% in 2019. Geneva - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced a revised outlook for airline industry performance in 2020 and 2021. Even before the pandemic, the future of work was top of mind for many banking executives. For instance, JP Morgan committed US$30 billion to fight the racial wealth gap.16. Power finds, Expect a spike in consumers switching banking providers due to the pandemic, How BBVA built a snowball to increase digital sales in Spain, It’s time to future-proof your workforce for the digital era: Citi's Joel Fastenberg, Operational resilience: Impact tolerances for important business services, OCC highlights key risks for federal banking system. Indeed, our respondents indicate spending on cloud will increase over the next year. The banking system has been flushed with ample liquidity which is evident by the over Rs 6 lakh crore being parked daily by banks with RBI at its reverse repo window. They should consider offering “finance-as-a-service” to internal stakeholders, which would enable more robust business decisions. Banking risk monthly outlook: Regional risks in 2021. Women in the financial services industry collection, Explore the Financial services collection, Go straight to smart. And, when it comes to his positive outlook, Hickman carries optimism over to what lies ahead for Arizona’s banking industry in 2021. Power finds, Critical moment for banks as financial situations worsen and engagement shifts to digital, J.D. But how do these considerations translate to the individual business segments? Deep industry losses will continue into 2021, even though performance is expected to improve over the period of the forecast. More than 60% of respondents in the finance function expect to increase cloud investments, and 51% said their firms will increase spending on data analytics (figure 9). Looking ahead, as banks adapt to the economic realities of 2021, bank leaders will likely need to make some hard decisions on optimal talent models. More than one-half of respondents are reassessing their global footprint (countries, cities, office configurations) and preparing more comprehensive crisis management approaches and documentation (figure 4). Establishing new talent models should facilitate flexible, self-organizing teams that come together for a common purpose. At the behest of the International Business Council, the World Economic Forum collaborated with Deloitte and the other Big 4 accounting firms to develop a set of common metrics to monitor progress in stakeholder capitalism, which also includes climate change.7. Of course, this is a broader cross-industry problem that banks can work with clients and data vendors to address. In addition to data quality and governance, another challenge is the prevalence of deficiencies in risk control design and architecture. Do you work for a monkey tree organisation? While customer experience can be tricky to quantify, client turnover is substantial, and client loyalty is rapidly becoming an endangered idea. Finance leaders already acknowledge the need for some of these changes. View in article, UBS Media, “UBS achieves ambitious sustainable investment goal ahead of schedule; tightens fossil fuel standards,” media release, March 5, 2020. M&A activity in the fintech/digital lending space should also ramp up because fintechs will increasingly want to expand internationally and seek access to a banking license. Banks’ healthy capital levels before the pandemic also helped mitigate the negative impacts from the crisis and should pave the way for the global economy to thrive in the future. The economic damage from the pandemic is self-evident. There may not be one core systems solution that fits all, so to determine which option is best, banks should evaluate the sustainability of current platforms, their appetite for risk, and the need to innovate their offerings. Forget Where’s Wally, Where’s Jack? While some unique challenges remain—the lack of common global standards, insufficient data, and unclear metrics to assess sustainability performance and outcomes—these issues are starting to be addressed. This may build in some redundancy, but it would help reduce operational risks. View in article, Jesús Aguado and Emma Pinedo, “Cross-border mergers in Europe would help diversify banks - ECB's de Cos,” Nasdaq, October 26, 2020. Ensuring only authorized users have access, assigning different privileges, and protecting customers from fraud, identity theft, and privacy abuses, while providing a seamless experience, is easier said than done. There are lots and lots and lots of reports and predictions for 2021 in banking. For instance, educating consumers on better debt management and being empathetic in debt collection efforts could help strengthen banks’ customer relationships and engender trust. Banking leaders around the world have faced an array of challenges on the talent front, from shifting to a remote, distributed workforce to finding ways to keep employees engaged and productivity high. The chief risk officer may also want to partner with the institution's chief sustainability officer, and industry organizations to create new risk standards and models that include climate risk. Chief operating officers may also need to challenge cost management orthodoxies, such as outsourcing noncore activities or using technology to do traditional manual tasks. He is responsible for all industry services, solutions, resources, and ecosystem alliances across Deloitte’s business groups. And while digital lenders may want to diversify their funding sources, banks may look to acquire fintechs for their digital capabilities and to target new segments. She has been a member of the Swiss Executive team since 2010 and has over 25 years of experience serving financial services institutions in Europe and the US. Our banking risk experts provide insight into the regional events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in 2021. But achieving sound data integrity across the risk control framework still seems easier said than done. Creating stronger incentives to decommission legacy systems could help in this effort. In this report, we highlighted what banks should focus on in 2021 and beyond across various business functions. Banking as a Service (BaaS) technology allows tech companies to build on existing bank infrastructure. Here, leaders should take steps to enable the first line to take greater ownership. Together with AI, these solutions could also improve resilience by boosting cashflow forecast accuracy. Increased provisioning following expiration of mainland China's micro, small, and medium-sized enterprise loan moratorium in March 2021. The 2021 M&A Outlook on January 6, 2021 ABA Banking Journal, Community Banking, Technology. Banks’ risk programs and practices should also incorporate climate risk, which includes transitioning to a carbon-neutral society. Despite some hiccups, many banking operations were executed smoothly. View in article, IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2019: Global manufacturing downturn, rising trade barriers, October 2019. And third, advanced technology is expected to be at the heart of everything banks do. Although much progress has been made, the threat volume, velocity, and variability continue to accelerate, as the attack surface expands through rapid digitization and externalization of digital infrastructure. But since then, there has been a revival (figure 10). Beli tiket atau pesan secara online hanya di Loket.com More specifically, in a recent Deloitte-FS-ISAC benchmarking survey,50 access control, data security, and detection processes were highlighted as the top investment priorities for financial institutions. Caution should be exercised, and due diligence efforts may need to be modified to account for COVID-19’s unique impact on asset quality and industry competition. It will be majority owned by Walmart https://trib.al/GpwyByn, UK government fintech review to identify key areas to alleviate Brexit consequences How can the emerging lessons serve as a catalyst for business transformation? One of the most notable effects of the pandemic is the scale and acceleration of several megatrends, and deceleration of others (figure 3). Bank of America’s business banking app witnessed a 117% growth in mobile check deposits.19 Similarly, digital roadshows became the norm in marketing securities. For additional insight and market commentary, visit our website. It was no easy feat to go fully virtual and execute an untested operating model in a matter of weeks. In addition to accelerating digital adoption, the crisis has also served as a litmus test for banks’ digital infrastructure. Boosting productivity, creativity, and collaboration should be the ultimate goals. View in article. Going forward, banks should look to institutionalize some of these learnings to create more agile workforces. He has been voted one of the most influential people in banking by The Financial Brand (as well as one of the best blogs), a FinTech Titan (Next Bank), one of the Fintech Leaders you need to follow (City AM, Deluxe and Jax Finance), as well as one of the Top 40 most influential people in financial technology by the Wall Street Journal’s Financial News. The survey included banking and capital markets companies with revenues of at least US$1 billion in 2019: Nineteen percent had between US$1 billion and US$5 billion in revenues; 22% had between US$5 billion and US$10 billion; 33% had between US$10 billion and US$25 billion; and 27% had more than US$25 billion. View in article, Institute of International Finance, “IIF/UNEP-FI TCFD report playbook,” September 2020; World Economic Forum, The net-zero challenge: Global climate action at a crossroads (part 1), December 2019; UNEP Finance Initiative, “TCFD – Task force on climate-related financial disclosures,” accessed October 26, 2020. Previously, he was a member of the US and Global Finance Transformation leadership team focused on delivering and advising on large scale change agenda for the CFO, CRO, and CDO within financial services. In addition to helping allocate or redirect capital toward economic activities that are net positive to societies, they can also nudge new behaviors among clients and counterparties. View in article, Goldman Sachs, “Sustainable finance at Goldman Sachs,” accessed October 26, 2020. Banking-as-a-service industry outlook. In the short term, banks will need to confront ongoing challenges from the pandemic and boost their resilience—whether it is capital, technology, or talent. In remote environments, however, managing can be a tricky dance: Team leaders will need to try to strike the right balance between maintaining their teams’ motivation and productivity levels without micromanaging. Increasingly, banks can deploy managed services to cut costs for critical but less-differentiating activities. DBS Bank’s Marketplace allows customers to conduct property and vehicle transactions, book travel, and compare and switch utility plans. It’s a difficult discussion, as the only certain is uncertain, but at least they give a stab and highlight four key exposures: They also offer key takeaways from their report, and this one is worth highlighting: “we believe many banking jurisdictions globally will not recover to pre-pandemic financial strength until 2023 or beyond”. When the pandemic brought the world to a halt, bank chief financial officers (CFOs) and treasurers faced a barrage of priorities. DTTL (also referred to as "Deloitte Global") does not provide services to clients. Lastly, M&A demand may also be spurred by private equity investors, who will want to deploy their growing dry powder, now that valuation levels have come back. Similarly, sell-side broker estimates suggest that the average ROE of the top 100 banks in North America,5 Europe, and APAC could decline by almost 3 percentage points, to 6.8% in 2020. In the table below, we highlight some key strategic and operational priorities for businesses to consider. Mark has a technology background and brings more than 24 years of experience helping clients deliver large scale/global programs to drive efficiency and effectiveness in areas of cost reduction, operational risk, performance management, asset efficiency, and regulatory reporting. Central Asia. The 2021 crystal ball might be statistically clear, but the numbers reveal pressures for and against continued industry consolidation. Power, “Critical moment for banks as financial situations worsen and engagement shifts to digital, J.D. The one I liked the best is the report from Standard & Poor’s (S&P, see end of blog) about the impact of the crisis in 2020 and the outlook for banking in 2021. Three-quarters of respondents said their institutions will increase investment in climate-related initiatives. But exploring solutions to maintain productivity levels in a remote work environment will be crucial. But acknowledging the elephant in the room, here are 10 issues, trends, and innovations that experts expect to have the biggest impact on the banking industry in 2021 … 06 January 2021 Natasha McSwiggan. Cloud applications can help in this regard, enabling continuous planning with rolling and driver-based forecasting. View in article, DBS Marketplace, “Explore marketplaces,” accessed October 26, 2020. Regulators were also keen to receive more detailed and frequent reporting from banks on the various risks they were facing. 2. But they have also had to deal with the economic realities brought on by the pandemic, forcing some to reduce their workforce and reconfigure the compensation structure. Our 2021 regulatory outlooks explore key issues that could have a significant impact on the market and your business in 2021. For instance, regulators in Europe have reiterated the need for banks to consolidate across borders and drive diversification.54, Similarly, the US Department of Justice is contemplating an overhaul of its outdated bank merger competitive review guidelines to reflect the current realities of a digitized world.55 This may remove barriers to mergers and acquisitions, particularly among smaller/rural banks, according to the Conference of State Bank Supervisors.56. View in article, Alaina Sparks et al., Beyond COVID-19: New opportunities for fintech companies, Deloitte, April 15, 2020. But this should not prevent bank leaders from reimagining the future and making bold bets. This may also result in bid-ask spreads becoming too wide, which could worsen if there is further economic deterioration. M&A activity may, however, be hindered by lingering uncertainty in assessing the true nature of credit risk in banks’ portfolios. The vast majority of Chase (89%)  and non-Chase (85%) customers feel they save time by managing their finances digitally. Nearly 70% of Chase customers, and 60% of non-Chase customers, completely or somewhat agree that they feel confident about the safety and security of making payments through digital apps or sending money through peer-to-peer apps. Could have a significant impact on the market and your business in 2021 spend a shed-load of on! Model outputs digital sales grew 50 % year-on-year in H1 2020.20 in 2021, many fintechs nonbanks! Trend will play out for the banking industry on a number of predictions 2021. Are used deliberately to change banks can not solve many of these challenges translate. Ensure long-term resilience and high-quality data of priorities alliances across Deloitte ’ s well-being. Some exacting realities, banks ’ limited capacity to take on more strategic activities equity, accessed. 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